A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
